2025.11.0411:10:00UTC+00Dollar Continues to Gain

On Tuesday, the dollar index hovered around 99.8, approaching its peak since May, as traders adjusted their expectations for the Federal Reserve’s December rate cut amid mixed messages from policymakers. Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remarked that a December rate cut "is not a certainty." Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed greater concern over inflation than employment, whereas Fed Governor Lisa Cook highlighted the rising risks of a weakening labor market. Additionally, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly urged officials to "maintain an open mind," and Governor Philip Miran reiterated that the current policy stance remains restrictive. Currently, markets estimate approximately a 70% probability of a 25 basis points cut next month, down from around 90% following the recent FOMC meeting decision, yet still higher than the 60% likelihood seen earlier this week. Amid the ongoing government shutdown limiting data releases, investors are now focusing on the forthcoming ADP employment report for new insights into labor market conditions.