Trade analysis and advice on trading the European currency

The price test of 1.1619 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The second test of 1.1619 led to the implementation of buy scenario #2, since at that moment the MACD was already in the oversold area. However, the pair failed to show a strong upward movement afterward.

The decline in the euro's exchange rate against the U.S. dollar is quite logical, given the lack of economic indicators supporting the euro recently. Against this backdrop, investors who are concerned about the region's economic prospects are favoring more stable assets, which currently include the dollar. Additional pressure on the euro also comes from forecasts regarding the future monetary policy of the European Central Bank.

The second half of the day is notable only for a speech by FOMC member Christopher Waller, which reduces the likelihood of a significant rise in EUR/USD quotes. The market will focus on his comments about inflation and the future path of interest rates. A dovish tone could weaken the dollar, but since the outlook for rate cuts in the U.S. is already fairly clear, such remarks are unlikely to put substantial pressure on the dollar.

As for intraday strategy, I'll mainly rely on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, it's possible to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.1635 (the green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.1674. At 1.1674, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30–35 points from the entry point. You can count on euro growth today only if the Fed representatives' statements are dovish.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1606 price level, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a market reversal upward. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.1635 and 1.1674 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1606 level (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1573, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20–25 points back from that level. Pressure on the pair may increase significantly today.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1635 price level, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1606 and 1.1573 can then be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – the approximate price where you can set a Take Profit or close the trade manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – the approximate price where you can set a Take Profit or close the trade manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important Notice for Beginners

Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions with great caution. Before major fundamental reports are released, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: for successful trading, you must have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.