Trade Analysis and Advice on Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test of 151.28 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for selling the dollar. However, the pair did not experience a significant decline afterward.

The yen fell sharply against the dollar today, as rumors spread that the Bank of Japan sees no urgent need to raise its key interest rate, despite the economy moving closer to achieving its inflation target.

During the U.S. trading session, there are no scheduled U.S. economic releases, so the main focus will be on the speech by FOMC member Christopher Waller. However, his remarks may not touch on the outlook for monetary policy, so the dollar is unlikely to face strong selling pressure. At the same time, market participants are paying close attention to U.S.–China trade relations, which appear to have stalled again. Any delays or uncertainties on this issue could trigger a small wave of yen buying, leading to a short-term correction in the pair after its sharp rise.

As for intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the price reaches around 152.10 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 152.75 (the thicker green line). Around 152.75, I plan to exit buy positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point pullback from that level. Further growth within the new uptrend is also possible.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 151.66 price level, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 152.10 and 152.75 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a breakout below 151.66 (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 151.14, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open buys in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound from that level. Strong downward pressure on the pair is unlikely today.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 152.10 level, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 151.66 and 151.14 can then be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – approximate price where you can set a Take Profit or manually close the position, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – approximate price where you can set a Take Profit or manually close the position, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important Notice for Beginners

Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. Before major fundamental reports are released, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news events, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management and trade with large positions.

And remember: to trade successfully, you must have a clear trading plan, like the one shown above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.