04.11.202510:39:07UTC+00US Treasury Yields Edge Down

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note decreased to 4.08% on Tuesday, after approaching four-week highs the previous day, influenced by lower-than-anticipated government borrowing estimates and mixed messages from Federal Reserve officials. The US Treasury Department announced it anticipates borrowing $569 billion in the fourth quarter, which is $21 billion less than predicted in July 2025, largely due to entering the period with a greater cash reserve. Additionally, traders are revising their expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, following ambiguous statements from policymakers. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed greater concern over inflation than employment, while Governor Lisa Cook pointed out potential risks of further weakening in the labor market. Moreover, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly encouraged officials to "keep an open mind," and Governor Christopher Miran remarked that monetary policy remains stringent. Currently, market participants estimate a roughly 70% probability of a 25 basis points rate cut next month, down from approximately 90% prior to last week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, but higher than the 60% probability observed earlier this week.