Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen

The first test of the price at 152.16 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator began to move above the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for buying dollars. However, the pair did not reach significant upward growth.

The Japanese yen significantly weakened, and the US dollar regained its leadership after news that disagreements within the Federal Reserve, which have been circulating as rumors, continue to affect market sentiment, adding further uncertainty. The situation with the yen is exacerbated by the ultra-soft stance of Japan's new Prime Minister, who, unlike many other politicians, is in no hurry to combat inflation. This creates a significant divergence in monetary policies, putting additional pressure on the Japanese currency. However, uncertainty about the Fed's future actions has driven market volatility and prompted investors to adopt a more cautious stance. The revision of forecasts for the pace of interest rate cuts in the US, caused by rumors of disagreements within the Fed, has led to the strengthening of the dollar; however, much will depend on the results of today's committee meeting, which we will discuss in more detail in the second half of the day. For now, it is advisable to act cautiously and favor the strengthening of the dollar over the yen.

As for intraday strategies, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios №1 and №2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario №1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at around 152.59 (green line on the chart), with a target of 153.40 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 153.40, I will exit my long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to resume buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting an upward move.

Scenario №2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price 152.07 at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a market reversal. An increase can be expected to the opposing levels of 152.59 and 153.40.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario №1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after updating the level at 152.07 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 151.23 level, where I will exit my shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its downward move.

Scenario №2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price 152.59 at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal. A decrease can be expected to the opposing levels of 152.07 and 151.23.

What's on the Charts:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price for setting Take Profit or manually securing profits since further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price for setting Take Profit or manually securing profits since further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Important to follow the overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not employing money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, to trade successfully, you need a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.