Yesterday, the cryptocurrency market experienced another significant sell-off, driving key crypto assets down to psychologically important levels. Bitcoin dropped to $100,000, while Ethereum fell to around $3,000, from which it was quickly bought back.

However, the bullish structure of the cryptocurrency market remains intact. While the panic selling continues and traders are locking in losses, it is essential to understand that the market correction is occurring for two primary reasons: the shutdown in the US, which is set to become the longest in history and is expected to inflict some damage on the economy, along with the probability of a delayed interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Nevertheless, these factors are expected to have short-term negative consequences for risk assets, as general macroeconomic conditions have not significantly changed. The movement towards the end of the tightening phase continues, as does the period of high interest rates. At current levels, the bullish trend remains, even though sentiment appears to have bottomed out.

Indeed, the shutdown in the US, which paralyzes government operations and creates uncertainty, is putting pressure on financial markets. Investors are avoiding risk amid concerns about slower economic growth and instability. However, historically, such periods have ended, and the economy has rebounded. It is important to remember that this is a temporary phenomenon, albeit with notable short-term repercussions.

The delayed interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is also concerning investors. It was previously expected that the Fed would continue to ease monetary policy, but recent data and statements from Fed officials indicate that a rate cut may be postponed. This raises concerns about slower economic growth and reduced attractiveness of risk assets.

Nonetheless, it is crucial to recognize that the US economy remains relatively strong, and inflation is gradually easing. The Fed is likely to act cautiously and gradually to avoid harming the economy. The current market correction may present an opportunity to buy assets at lower prices for those with a long-term investment horizon who are prepared to ride out short-term fluctuations. The key is to stay calm and avoid succumbing to panic.

It is worth noting that the decline in Bitcoin's price from $125,000 to $99,000, which represents a 21.5% drop, is relatively modest compared to the 31% drop in the first quarter of the year amidst fears surrounding "liberation day" tariffs.

Clearly, a renewed desire to buy will require a shift in macroeconomic tone or new rhetoric. Rate cuts, a weakening dollar, or a revival of the tokenization of real assets could rekindle interest.

Trading recommendations:

Regarding the technical picture for Bitcoin, buyers are currently aiming to reclaim the $106,100 level, which opens a direct path to $108,800, and from there, it is only a short step to $111,300. The furthest target is around $113,500; surpassing this level would indicate further strengthening of the bull market. In case of a decline, buyers are expected at $103,400. If the price falls below this area, BTC could quickly drop to around $99,500, with the most distant support at $95,900.

For Ethereum, clear consolidation above the $3,505 level opens the way to $3,664. The furthest target is around $3,818; breaking above this level would indicate a strengthening bull market and increased buyer interest. If Ethereum declines, buyers are expected at $3,321. A drop below this area could quickly push ETH down to around $3,139, with the most distant support at $2,950.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines mark indicate support and resistance levels where either a slowdown or active price growth is expected;

- Green lines represent the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines show the 200-day moving average.

Typically, a crossover or price test of these moving averages either halts price movement or sets a new directional impulse.