Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 144.38 level occurred when the MACD had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the dollar's upward potential. For that reason, I did not buy.

The yen lost a substantial amount following today's decision by the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged, along with comments from its chairman indicating that he has no plans to raise them yet due to the complex geopolitical situation related to U.S. tariffs.

In the second half of the day, we are expecting the weekly report on initial jobless claims in the United States, which is traditionally considered a significant barometer of labor market health. A rise in claims could signal an economic slowdown and an increase in layoffs, while a decline may indicate labor market strength. Also worth watching is the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for April. A reading below 50 would point to further contraction in activity, which is negative for the dollar. However, these indicators are unlikely to lead to a significant strengthening of the yen or a drop in USD/JPY. On the other hand, strong reports could support new purchases of the trading instrument.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the execution of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 144.79 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 145.44 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 145.44, I plan to exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point retracement. A rise in the pair today can be expected only after strong U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 144.28 level while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 144.79 and 145.44.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after an update of the 144.28 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 143.72 level, where I will exit shorts and open immediate long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Downward pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 144.79 level while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 144.28 and 143.72.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – the assumed price where you can set a Take Profit or manually fix profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – the assumed price where you can set a Take Profit or manually fix profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very cautious when deciding to enter a position. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't apply money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you must have a clear trading plan — like the one I've presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on current market conditions is initially a losing strategy for intraday traders.