Trade review and tips for trading the Japanese yen

The price test of 147.69 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by more than 40 points.

In the second half of the day, no US statistics are scheduled, so the market's attention will be on a speech by FOMC member Mary Daly. However, the yen, as is well known, has its own resilience due to the Bank of Japan's long-standing tradition of stable monetary policy. Markets will closely monitor Daly's words, looking for hints of a potential acceleration in Fed rate cuts. Such a signal would certainly become a catalyst for mass dollar selling, pushing investors to seek safer havens—traditionally, the yen. Still, Daly's rhetoric alone will not be decisive. The overall macroeconomic environment in the US and Japan will play the key role. Today's decision by the Bank of Japan to leave rates unchanged clearly disappointed traders who were betting on tighter policy, which will continue to put pressure on the yen in the pair with the dollar.

As for intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 148.30 (green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 148.93 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 148.93 I will exit the buys and open sells in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction). A continuation of the bullish market makes growth likely. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above zero and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 147.92, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 148.30 and 148.93 can be expected.

Sell signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after updating the 147.92 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be 147.29, where I will exit the sells and immediately open buys in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction). Downward pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below zero and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 148.30, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 147.92 and 147.29 can be expected.

Chart notes:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profit, since further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profit, since further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very cautious in making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.