Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Euro
The price test at 1.1565 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving down from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair fell by 12 points before the pressure subsided.
The impact of the inflation data turned out to be minor and did not cause turmoil in the financial markets. The figures matched economists' forecasts, with only the core prices slightly exceeding expectations. The absence of surprises, in turn, kept volatility within a reasonable range. In this situation, the EUR/USD pair continued to drift in a familiar channel, showing neither sharp spikes nor painful drops. Technical levels continue to serve as reference points around which the main battle between buyers and sellers unfolds.
In the second half of the day, data on the U.S. primary housing market, the Chicago Business Activity Index (Chicago PMI), and public speeches by FOMC members Raphael Bostic and Beth M. Hammack is scheduled for release. Special attention will be given to the housing market, which is sensitive to changes in interest rates. Information on new home sales will help assess buyer demand and its resilience under the current monetary policy. The Chicago PMI, which reflects business conditions in the region, also plays an important role in evaluating economic health. An increase in the indicator signals growth in production volumes, while a decrease indicates stagnation. Investors use this leading indicator to adjust their forecasts for future economic growth.
Speeches by Raphael Bostic and Beth M. Hammack from the FOMC will shed light on the further prospects of monetary policy. By carefully analyzing the regulators' statements, market participants will look for hints of possible changes in the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates. Any signs of a "dovish" or "hawkish" tone can have a significant impact on trading dynamics. Their comments on the current levels of inflation, employment, and GDP growth prospects will be of particular importance.
As for the intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No. 1: Today, it is possible to buy the euro around 1.1578 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.1595. At 1.1595, I plan to exit the market and open a sell position in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35-point move from the entry level. Expecting euro growth today is realistic only within the framework of a correction.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1565 price level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a market reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1578 and 1.1595 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1565 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1546, where I plan to exit the market and open an immediate buy position in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25-point move back from that level. Selling pressure on the pair may return at any moment today.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1578 price level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1565 and 1.1546 can be expected.
Chart Notes:
- Thin green line – entry price at which buying is recommended.
- Thick green line – suggested level for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
- Thin red line – entry price at which selling is recommended.
- Thick red line – suggested level for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.
Important Notice for Beginner Traders
Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions with extreme caution. Before the release of key fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit — especially if you ignore money management principles and trade large volumes.
And remember: for successful trading, you must have a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market movements are an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.
