Trade Analysis and Advice on Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 150.74 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for buying the dollar — but a significant rally never materialized.

During the U.S. session, only the Leading Economic Index will be released, so we are unlikely to see any major shifts in the USD/JPY pair. Therefore, it's better to focus on new Trump statements regarding the resolution of the U.S.–China trade conflict. However, it's also important to remember that the Leading Economic Index is essentially a barometer of the U.S. economy. It aggregates data from various sectors, providing insight into future trends. While there may not be a direct correlation with USD/JPY, the index indirectly influences expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy. If the index indicates a slowdown in economic growth, the Fed may be more inclined toward lowering interest rates, which would weaken the dollar. Conversely, strong data could reinforce the Fed's position and support the U.S. currency. The index's influence may be short-term, but even small bursts of volatility can be of interest to traders and scalpers.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the 150.97 entry point (green line on the chart), with a target of 151.45 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 151.45, I will close buy positions and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move back from that level). The pair's growth may be possible as part of an upward correction.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 150.56 level, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 150.97 and 151.45 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the price breaks below 150.56 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 150.02, where I will exit short positions and immediately open buys in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound from that level). Downward pressure on the pair may return if U.S. statistics come out weak.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to move downward from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 150.97 price level, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 150.56 and 150.02 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – estimated price level for placing a Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – estimated price level for placing a Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note

Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you must have a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.