Trade review and trading advice for the euro

The price test at 1.1740 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose toward the target level of 1.1759.

The euro showed a sharp rise in response to reports about a likely signing of a memorandum to end hostilities between the United States and Iran. Investors interpreted this as a positive signal of improving stability and reduced geopolitical risks. The strengthening of the euro also reflects growing confidence in the economic potential of the eurozone following the end of the energy crisis.

In the second half of the day, euro dynamics may be influenced by the ADP employment change report for the US private sector. Positive ADP readings usually indicate a healthy labor market, which may strengthen the US dollar and increase expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike. On the other hand, weak data may raise concerns about economic slowdown and weaken the US currency. Alongside the economic data, speeches are expected from two key members of the Federal Open Market Committee: Alberto Musalem and Austan D. Goolsbee. Market participants will look for signals on how persistent the Federal Reserve considers inflation and when a rate-cut cycle might begin.

Regarding intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy signal

Scenario #1:

Today, euro purchases are possible if the price reaches around 1.1779 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.1813. At 1.1813, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. Euro growth today is only possible after weak US data.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1761, while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A rise toward 1.1779 and 1.1813 can be expected.

Sell signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1761 (red line on the chart). The target is 1.1728, where I intend to exit and immediately open a buy in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point reversal. Selling pressure may return today if US data is strong.Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1779 while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1761 and 1.1728 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – target price (Take Profit level), where profit may be locked in, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – target price (Take Profit level), where profit may be locked in, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – trading decisions should consider overbought and oversold zones

Important note

Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when entering the market. Before major fundamental data releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp volatility. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you may lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a losing intraday strategy from the outset.