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24.07.2025 11:43 AM
USD/CHF – Analysis and Forecast

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The USD/CHF pair remains in a bearish consolidation phase, fluctuating just above the psychological level of 0.7900, which is near the three-week low recorded the previous day. The U.S. dollar is still struggling to attract strong buying interest and is trading below the 97.28 level.

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This acts as a significant barrier to further upside in USD/CHF. Investors remain unsure about the timing and pace of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. In addition, concerns over the possible weakening of the central bank's independence due to increased political interference are prompting dollar bulls to take a more cautious stance.

U.S. President Donald Trump has personally criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell for failing to lower borrowing rates and has repeatedly called for his resignation. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the nomination of a new Fed Chair might be announced in December or January. These developments contribute to further uncertainty and hinder significant dollar appreciation, placing pressure on USD/CHF.

However, market sentiment remains generally risk-positive, preventing traders from actively buying the Swiss franc, which is traditionally seen as a safe-haven currency. On Tuesday evening, Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan, and reports emerged that the U.S. and the European Union are moving toward a deal with 15% yield. These headlines are acting as a short-term support for USD/CHF, helping to contain further declines.

Today, traders should watch for the release of preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, which may offer new insight into the global economic outlook and boost risk appetite. The European Central Bank's monetary policy decision could also trigger market volatility and affect demand for safe-haven assets. In addition, the weekly U.S. jobless claims and new home sales reports could provide additional trading opportunities for the USD/CHF pair later this Thursday.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart remain negative, confirming a lack of bullish momentum. The first resistance level is at 0.7850; a break above it could open the way toward the psychological barrier at 0.8000. Support around 0.7915 is helping the pair stay above the key 0.7900 level.

Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Irina Yanina
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