Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Euro

A test of the 1.1742 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far above the zero line, which limited the upside potential of the pair—especially after weak data from the eurozone.

Reported inflation in eurozone countries was almost exactly in line with analysts' expectations, which did not allow the euro to show significant growth. In the second half of the day, only a limited set of US economic data will be released, including the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and related inflation expectations. Only convincing numbers can trigger renewed dollar gains against the euro. The index is expected to show a slight increase, signaling a stabilizing economic landscape. Inflation expectations are also key: if consumers show concern about rising prices, this could pressure the Federal Reserve and support the dollar. Otherwise, if inflation expectations remain contained, the Fed will likely consider more active rate cuts—especially after yesterday's consumer price index data.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario 1: Today, consider buying euros if the price reaches the area of 1.1735 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.1776. At 1.1776, I plan to exit the long and also sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 pips from the entry point. Euro upside should only be considered after weak US data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above zero and has just started rising.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1712 area when the MACD is in oversold territory. This will limit downside potential and could lead to an upward reversal. A rise toward the 1.1735 and 1.1776 levels can be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario 1: I plan to sell euros after a move to the 1.1712 level (red line on the chart). The target is 1.1671, where I will exit shorts and immediately buy on a rebound (expecting a move of 20–25 pips from that area). Selling pressure on the pair will return today if the data is strong. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below zero and beginning to decline.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1735 when the MACD is in overbought territory. This will limit upside potential and could lead to a market reversal downward. A drop toward 1.1712 and 1.1671 can then be expected.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.

Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.

Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas.

Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.