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03.11.2025 01:07 AM
British Pound. Weekly Preview

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The British currency cannot boast of more attractive movements or a more accurate wave analysis. Essentially, everything happening with the euro currency is also occurring with the British pound sterling. Demand for it is decreasing just like for the euro, and the news background is interpreted by market participants only in favor of the dollar. Thus, we will have to work with such movements and this wave analysis.

The wave analysis of the pound again indicates the completion of the current wave set. The current corrective five-wave structure has taken a convincing form and belongs to wave c, a component of the presumed wave 4. Even if the current wave analysis is incorrect at the higher level, it is accurate at the lower level. Since July 1 of this year, we have seen three waves down. The first two waves each consist of three waves, while the last consists of five. The low of wave c is below the low of wave a. Therefore, this wave and the set of waves can complete at any moment.

The only things that can objectively contribute to faster completion of this set of waves are the Bank of England meeting and the market itself. As I have said many times, it is unlikely that the BoE will opt for another round of monetary policy easing given the current inflation rate of 3.8%. While the consumer price index did not accelerate in October, what does that change? Inflation is still nearly twice the BoE's target. Therefore, the BoE will not pursue further easing.

The second factor comes into play— the market itself. If it continues to interpret events in favor of the dollar, there may be no need for further analysis at all. Currently, it is expected that two MPC members will vote for a rate cut, but that will not be enough to make a decision. Even if there are three or four votes to cut rates, the MPC may still be unable to decide to cut rates, but the market may interpret these voting results as "dovish" and resume selling the British pound. In both cases, the BoE's decision will remain the same. Thus, the second factor (the market factor) is even more important than the first under current circumstances.

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Wave Pattern for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, the instrument continues to build an upward section of the trend. Currently, the market is in a pause, but Donald Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve's stance remain significant factors in the future decline of the American currency. The targets for the current section of the trend may extend up to the 25 level. At this time, we can observe the development of corrective wave 4, which takes on a very complex and elongated appearance. Therefore, in the near future, I am still considering only purchases, as any downward structures have a corrective nature. The latest structure, a-b-c-d-e, may be nearing completion.

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Wave Pattern for GBP/USD:

The wave pattern of the GBP/USD instrument has changed. We continue to deal with an upward, impulsive section of the trend, but its internal wave structure is becoming more complex. Wave 4 takes on a three-wave appearance, and its structure is significantly more elongated than wave 2. Another downward corrective structure is close to completion. I continue to expect the main wave structure to resume its development, with initial targets around the 38 and 40 levels, and I believe this could occur as early as the beginning of November.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play out and often lead to changes.
  2. If there is uncertainty about what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
  3. There can never be 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Alexander Dneprovskiy
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