The meaning of this phrase is probably known to everyone by now. It means that Trump always backs down and is used in cases when the American president initially makes loud statements (threats, ultimatums) or takes aggressive actions (sanctions, tariffs), only to forget them or ease the pressure on the opponent later. However, if this strategy didn't work, Trump would have stopped using it a long time ago. The thing is, it works well, but... not on everyone.

Just consider this: Trump has imposed tariffs and sanctions on half the countries in the world. Most nations have deemed it better to negotiate peacefully with Washington. This even included representatives from Brussels and London. When the world at large saw the contents of trade deals struck by Trump with the European Union, Japan, the UK, and other "heavyweights," shock ensued. Deals with Washington entail investments in America amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars, as well as commitments to purchase energy resources, various raw materials, metals, and agricultural products, also worth hundreds of billions of dollars. And what does the US provide in return?

In response, America reduces tariffs. This means not even completely removing them, just reducing them. Undoubtedly, the US remains the largest and wealthiest market in the world, so even a 5% reduction in tariffs for some countries, in dollar terms, translates into much greater benefits, given the forced investments and purchases, than the previous tariffs and the absence of a trade deal. But doesn't it seem to you that all these trade deals look "oppressive" and one-sided?

However, some countries respond to Trump in kind. And they succeed. Their victory lies in the fact that they have not signed "oppressive" deals, under which countries must invest in the US economy for years and buy everything from the US, even things they do not need. A vivid example of this is China. Beijing responded by raising tariffs, restricting exports of rare earth metals, reducing purchases from the US, and developing greater independence in sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture, and technology. And Trump had to back down. But China is not the only example.

Wave Analysis of EUR/USD:

Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward section of the trend. In recent months, the market has paused, but the policies of Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve remain significant factors in the decline of the American currency in the future. The targets for the current trend section may extend to the 25th level. At this time, the construction of an upward wave set may continue. I expect that, given the current positions, the third wave of this set will continue to form, which could be either (c) or (3). At this time, I remain in buys with targets in the range of 1.1670–1.1720.

Wave Analysis of GBP/USD:

The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has changed. We are still dealing with an upward, impulsive section of the trend, but its internal wave structure has become complex. The downward correction structure a-b-c-d-e in (c) at (4) appears to be quite complete. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main section of the trend to resume building with initial targets around the 38 and 40 levels. In the short term, one can expect the formation of wave (3) or (c) with targets around the levels of 1.3280 and 1.3360, which correspond to 76.4% and 61.8% of the Fibonacci.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are hard to trade because they often trigger changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There can never be 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Don't forget protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.