The wave pattern for GBP/USD continues to indicate the formation of an upward wave structure (see second chart), but over the past few weeks, it has become more complex and ambiguous (see first chart). The pound has declined too sharply, so the trend segment that began on August 1 now looks uncertain.

The first idea that comes to mind is the complication of the presumed wave 4, which is taking a three-wave form, with each of its sub-waves also consisting of three smaller waves. In that case, a decline toward the 1.31 and 1.30 levels could be expected.

However, the downward wave structure that began on September 17 has already taken a three-wave form. From here, two scenarios are possible — either a continuation into a five-wave pattern or the start of a new upward sequence of waves. Naturally, I expect only a rise in quotations under either structure. In my view, the current news background is so unambiguously negative for the dollar that no other outcome seems likely. However, in recent weeks, buyers have shown no initiative at all.

At present, much in the foreign exchange market depends on Donald Trump's policies. The market fears a possible easing of Fed policy due to a weakening labor market and Trump's pressure, while the president himself continues to introduce new tariff packages, signaling that the global trade war remains in full swing. Therefore, the news background remains unfavorable for the U.S. dollar.

The GBP/USD rate barely moved on Monday, showing no reaction even to Donald Trump's new aggressive statements toward China. To be fair, it should be noted that over the past week alone, Trump has repeatedly shifted the tone of his remarks about Beijing. The market is already tired of these "swings." Now participants want concrete actions, not endless speculation.

As mentioned in my weekend reviews, there is currently a complete lack of clarity in the market. Anything can happen. Perhaps China and the U.S. will agree on a trade deal in November. Or perhaps everything will end in a new escalation. We'll find out only in November.

The results of the next FOMC meeting could also vary widely, and the sentiment among Committee members may shift significantly once the U.S. government shutdown ends and all the delayed economic reports are released. By the way, no one knows when the shutdown will end — nor what the current state of the U.S. labor market is, or what degree of monetary policy easing it may require.

This week, market participants will be able to analyze only inflation data from the U.S. and the U.K. — at least that's something concrete. Interestingly, the U.S. inflation report is scheduled for Friday, October 24, though it usually comes out midweek, around the 14th–15th of the month. Perhaps this is an error, and the CPI won't actually be published then — but no one knows for sure yet.

General Conclusions

The wave pattern for GBP/USD has evolved. We are still dealing with an upward, impulsive trend segment, but its internal structure has become more complex. Wave 4 is taking a three-wave form and is turning out to be much longer than wave 2. The latest downward three-wave structure appears to have been completed. If that is indeed the case, the pair may continue rising within the global wave structure, with initial targets around the 1.38 and 1.40 levels.

The larger-scale wave structure looks almost perfect, even though wave 4 has slightly surpassed the high of wave 1. However, I remind you that ideal wave patterns exist only in textbooks — in practice, things are much more complicated. At this stage, I see no reason to consider alternative scenarios to the ongoing upward trend.

Key Principles of My Analysis

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex ones are difficult to trade and often prone to change.
2. If you're uncertain about the market, it's better to stay out of it.
3. There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.