EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair resumed its upward movement on Monday, but volatility throughout the day was low, and the only more or less significant report on German industrial production provoked no market reaction at all. By the start of the US trading session, the price returned to the 1.1750–1.1760 area, which it had already traded around on Friday, but once again failed to break through it. Thus, the upward trend remains, but breaking through the 1.1750–1.1760 area is still needed for a further, quite logical strengthening of the European currency.

In our view, the market still has enough reasons to keep selling off the dollar. However, we observe that over the last couple of months, volatility in the market has dropped sharply, and traders are in no hurry to sell the US currency. Truth be told, they are even less in a hurry to buy it. As a result, euro growth continues, albeit at a slower pace than in the first half of 2025.

On Friday, the Nonfarm Payrolls report flopped, and on Tuesday, it could flop again. Tomorrow, the annual revision of this indicator will be published, so we can fully expect increased volatility and another decline of the dollar. In our opinion, whether quickly or slowly, the dollar will continue to lose value going forward.

On the 5-minute timeframe, not a single trading signal was formed on Monday. The price worked the 1.1750–1.1760 area, which allowed for opening short positions, but the trend is now upward, and there is a risk of a new fall in the US currency today.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated September 2. The chart above clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders was bullish for a long time, and bears only tenuously took control at the end of 2024, but quickly lost it. Since Trump became the US president, the dollar has been the only currency to fall. We can't say with 100% certainty that the US dollar's decline will continue, but current world events point precisely in that direction.

We still see no fundamental factors for strengthening the euro, but there remain plenty of reasons for the dollar to decline. The global downtrend remains intact, but does it matter where the price has moved over the last 17 years? Once Trump ends his trade wars, the dollar may go up again, but recent events show that the trade war will continue in one form or another. A potential loss of Fed independence is yet another strong pressure factor on the US currency.

The positioning of the indicator's red and blue lines still shows a bullish tendency. During the last reporting week, long positions from the "Non-commercial" group decreased by 2,700, while shorts increased by 700. The net position for the week thus decreased by 3,400, which is an insignificant change.

EUR/USD 1-Hour Analysis

In the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair took its first step toward forming a new uptrend, but since then, the market has been flat for several weeks now. Those global factors behind the fall of the US currency, which we constantly discuss, have not gone away. We still see no grounds for the medium-term growth of the dollar. Therefore, we cannot forecast its rise. The disappointing Nonfarm Payrolls report only brings a new collapse of the US currency closer.

For September 9, we highlight the following trading levels: 1.1092, 1.1147, 1.1185, 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1534, 1.1604–1.1615, 1.1666, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1846–1.1857, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1660) and Kijun-sen line (1.1684). The Ichimoku indicator lines may move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Don't forget to set your Stop Loss to break-even if the price moves 15 pips in the right direction. This will protect against potential losses should the signal turn out to be false.

On Tuesday, only one report will be published, but this report is worth a dozen others. In the second half of the day, the revised annual figure will be released, and traders have every reason to expect it to be revised downward, not upward. Thus, tomorrow the dollar could very well resume its slow decline.

Trading Recommendations

On Tuesday, the price may continue the decline that began on Monday after the second consecutive rebound from the 1.1750–1.1760 area. A flat is essentially still in place, so a new round of decline is a logical development. However, we believe the rebound will be weak, and in the second half of the day, we expect weak Nonfarm data and fresh growth of the pair.

Illustration Explanations:

• Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines where movement may end. They are not trading signal sources.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines—These are strong Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
• Extremum levels – thin red lines where the price has previously rebounded. These act as trading signal sources.
• Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the size of the net position for each category of traders.